This is Surrey CC's Education Organisation Plan 2010.
http://www.surreycc.gov.uk/sccwebsite/sccwspublications.nsf/591f7dda55aad72a80256c670041a50d/4f2df68c0df0dafe8025775b002a26e0/$FILE/EOPAC%202010%20ch%2013%20Surrey%20Heath.pdf
It does show a decline in year 7 pupils up to 2014 but then an increase. This would mean that in the second year of operation of the combined school, year 7 numbers would be increasing towards current levels, making two schools viable again. The data also shows that child birth follows cycles with ebbs and flows and that you need to maintain some capacity to cater for surges otherwise pupils will have to be turned away and travel to schools in other Authorities.
On the basis that Surrey County Council will have to throw substantial amounts of money at the new combined school to provide buses, transport staff and to facilitate other changes (Mr Ryles and SCC suggested that the Council would put more money into the school than at present) surely SCC should think longer term in terms of the interest of children and the community and ride out the short term blip, in the knowledge that pupil numbers will increase beyond 2014 leading to a shortfall of spaces in 2019. An additional 1,500 houses at Deepcut from 2016 will bolster pupil numbers even more longer term, maybe even requiring an increase in School facilities. I'll bet that Surrey County Council will argue for and extract a hefty education contribution from the future developers of Deepcut towards increasing and improving education facilities.
Surrey's view in 2010 was to take no action on secondary school provision but to monitor. What Surrey CC said in the meetings this week was that the amount of development coming forward had reduced since they had previously reviewed pupil numbers and they cited the development of Deepcut as an example and they asserted that it had been delayed. My understanding from researching this on the internet is that in 2008 the Secretary of State for Defence announced that the site would become available from 2013 for redevelopment. As far as I am aware, this timescale has not changed. There are no other major developments planned in the area, apart from small infill schemes of a few houses. Surely they can't be suggesting that a year on from their previous review that the amount of new development has had such a significant impact on children numbers.
The problem with any modelling of population prediction is that it is simply that. The assumptions you put in significantly affect the output. The recent 2011 Census will provide more accurate information on children numbers and ages but it will take at least a year for this data to be analysed and made available to Surrey CC or the public. The decision will be made BEFORE the results of the Census are available. Surely at the very least, Surrey CC should delay the decision until they have up to date information?
Surrey County Council needs to publish more information to allow proper scrutiny by the electorate.
Martin Knowles
Thank for this letter very informative!
ReplyDeleteHow does anyone check with the MOD about the schedule for development in the area....perhaps that's something for investigation.
Interesting post. Pse look here
ReplyDeletehttp://www.surreyheath.gov.uk/planning/planningpolicyandconservation/AMR.htm?textsize=1
for some more info.
Don't have time at the moment to look at this properly but looks like it might have some useful info. Potentially interesting chart on page 56. The sudden upturn there is caused, I would guess, by military land development.
Robert R
Looking at their document the main method of estimation for secondary school admissions is to apply a factor such as 0.89 to the year 6 admissions as it makes sense that the intake will come mainly from local primary schools.
ReplyDeleteMany primary schools take on additional children after reception, so the initial figures from 2005 and 2006 when there was a drop in admissions are not accurate. Since this is a critical issue, we should ask Surrey County Council to undertake a more accurate assessment by counting the number of pupils in Years 4 and 5 of the schools that they use for these statistics.
R
Robert R...am wading through that doc now mate :)
ReplyDeleteI've just submitted a FOI request to SCC asking for all details of the source data and analysis used to arrive at the numbers presented.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately they have up to 20 daya to respond. Interesting to see if they respond promptly and completely, or not.....
Robert R