"Credit Crunch" makes current figures "difficult to interpret"

It looks like Surrey County Council have updated their website and added info regarding the merger proposal to:

http://www.surreycc.gov.uk/sccwebsite/sccwspages.nsf/LookupWebPagesByTITLE_RTF/The+future+of+Tomlinscote+School+and+Kings+International+College?opendocument

Reading Surrey's School Organisation Plan 2009-2018 and it looks like they admit that their projections may not be accurate due to the economic circumstances we are under...

 http://www.surreycc.gov.uk/sccwebsite/sccwspages.nsf/LookupWebPagesByTITLE_RTF/Surrey%27s+School+Organisation+Plan+2009-2018?opendocument

 
The Impact of the “Credit Crunch”
4.24 At the time of writing (March 2009) there is a general consensus that the UK is
    experiencing a recession. The situation is, however, extremely unsettled and
   therefore very difficult to interpret for longer term planning purposes.
4.25 The Council has already aware that economic instability is likely to lead to a
    reduced use of independent education and therefore an increased call for places in
   local state schools. This appears likely to have the greatest impact where – as with
    Surrey – the use of independent education is relatively high.
4.26 Surrey has only limited precedents on which to base its estimates of the
    consequences of these events. More recent periods of economic difficulties (1979-
   82, 1989-1992, 1999-2001) have been both different from each other and would
  appear to be more limited in scale than current events.
4.27 At this time, two consequences seem probable:-
• • 
4.28
in the shorter term, pressure on school places will increase and the number of
vacancies will decline;
In the middle run, new home building will decline and the tendency of local
births to rise will thus reduce.
Surrey cannot easily quantify these effects, and the subsequent estimates in this
document do not factor it in. This year’s admission applications will give an
important early indicator of the degree of change we can expect. It appears
inevitable that the first and main effect will be to increase pressure on places at
both primary and secondary where this is already being felt.

So according to their own report, the impact of increased pressure for places is stronger than the reduction due to slower house builds. So their case regarding reduced PAN affect Kings seem to be weak.

Pages 65 to 70 of the document discuss the plan for Surrey Heath. There seems to be an increase in spare spaces in 2012 (141) and 2013 (120) but the figures return to normal levels in 2014 (79). So we really need to understand how the figures in the  pre-consultation presentations are so different to their long term plan and what factors are affecting those figures......

They claim to have updated forecasts, it is not clear what they mean by 'latest forecast' and when they were updated.

Please note that this page refers to the initial School Organisation Plan first published in Spring 2009. This document has now been updated to reflect the latest forecasts and can be found here.

http://www.surreycc.gov.uk/sccwebsite/sccwspages.nsf/LookupWebPagesByTITLE_RTF/Education+Organisation+Plan+2010-2019?opendocument